Big Tech’s AI Spending Bubble: If OpenAI Fails, Market Could Domino Collapse

샘 올트먼 오픈AI CEO. 로이터

The global AI boom, ignited by ChatGPT’s 2022 launch, has triggered what critics call “the largest capital misallocation in history,” with big tech firms pouring trillions into infrastructure despite scant evidence of profitability or productivity gains [1][2]. International Data Corp. projects global AI infrastructure spending will surge from $300 billion in 2025 to $758 billion by 2029—a more than two-fold increase—amid growing concerns about overinvestment and public backlash [1].

At the center of this controversy is OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, which reported a staggering $38.5 billion net loss in 2025 against $13.07 billion in revenue, according to leaked audited financials confirmed by the Financial Times [2][10]. The company has committed roughly $600 billion to AI infrastructure investments through 2030, a figure that critics describe as “pouring water into a bottomless barrel” [10][11]. Despite these losses, OpenAI closed a record $122 billion funding round in March 2026, raising its post-money valuation to $852 billion [5][6].

Tech critic Ed Zitron has condemned the AI frenzy as a “cult-like psychosis” that has blinded leaders to the lack of measurable return on investment, calling it a dangerous era of unchecked spending [1]. OpenAI, now restructured as a Public Benefit Corporation controlled by the nonprofit OpenAI Foundation, remains privately held with Microsoft owning 27% and employees and other investors holding 47% [3][5]. With ChatGPT serving over 900 million weekly active users, the company’s potential collapse could trigger a domino effect across the AI market, given its dominant role and the industry’s heavy reliance on its infrastructure and models [9][10].

As OpenAI prepares for a potential IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the process, the

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